Suspense, horror, sadness, relief, fear, and more. The world has responded with a sequence of emotions to Afghanistan’s scenes, and with a string of questions to which answers may or may not soon come.
Will the evacuations from Kabul’s U.S.-controlled airfield be completed without tragic accidents and without violent interference from the Taliban? Just where will the tens of thousands of escaping Afghans find their new homes?
Will the Taliban be less fanatical as it controls Afghanistan for a second time?
Will Biden suffer and Trump gain from the images we’ve been seeing? After the successive failures of Russia and America, will China now try to bring “order” and “progress” to Afghanistan? Will a new and “pragmatic” Taliban unexpectedly acknowledge the modern world?
Can there be a coalition between the Taliban and the likes of Hamid Karzai and other moderate politicians who remain in the country? What will be the domestic and foreign policies of a new government in Kabul? To what degree will the new Kabul be influenced by Pakistan, which has had a parental link with the Taliban?
Dozens of crucial questions can be asked in addition, but we can be sure that for millions of Afghan women the most important one is, “How bearable will the new restrictions be?” Perhaps sisters, daughters and wives of Taliban members are among those asking this question.
People in India will ask if the Taliban’s return means a boost across South Asia to the spirit of coercion. “You are a Talibani!” is an accusation that Hindu extremists have already started throwing at Muslims asking for the right of free speech. When Muslims in the town of Ujjain in Madhya Pradesh raised slogans in protest after their religious procession was stopped, six sloganeers were arrested, and the state’s BJP chief minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, declared that his government would not tolerate a “Taliban-like mindset”.
Within the world of India’s Hindu right, the Taliban’s re-emergence will probably intensify rivalry and may energize hardliners, who may argue that India’s Hindus should not curb themselves when a force like the Taliban is not restrained by constitutional considerations. Indians outside the Hindu right will however point to Afghanistan as an example of what extremism does to a country.
In Pakistan, elation at Taliban’s success has been joined by fears of another large Afghan exodus into the country, by the knowledge that local extremists have been encouraged by the Afghan example, and by the sobering realization that a globally unpopular Taliban regime will expect financial support from Islamabad.
How China deals with the new Afghanistan will be most interesting to watch. Religious groups based in Xinjiang or Tibet have not thus far found favour with Beijing. And although America’s retreat has been celebrated in China, there has been no sign that Beijing will absorb Afghanistan’s large deficits, hitherto covered by the U.S. and its allies and, it would seem, by the drug-trade.
Here is what China’s official mouthpiece, Global Times, says, quoting President Xi Jinping:
“Xi said that China is willing to strengthen communication and coordination with the broader international community including Russia on the Afghan issue, and called for concerted efforts to encourage all factions in Afghanistan to build an open and inclusive political structure through consultation, implement moderate and prudent domestic and foreign policies, thoroughly dissociate from all terrorist groups, and maintain friendly relations with the rest of the world, especially neighboring countries.”
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1232460.shtml
Anyone impressed by these words should also note anotherGlobal Timesstory: “The Chinese Ministry of Education has issued a guiding document to incorporate ‘Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era’ into the curriculum” for China’s teenagers.